Friday, December 29, 2006

Zito, Rotations, 'ask dan'

I love when a big signing many different stats thrown out and so many different let's go through them...oh btw if you don't know we're speaking of Barry Zito joining the San Francisco Giants for a reported 7 year deal worth $126 million, it's the biggest signing for a pitcher of all time. So first the stats...

  • Zito has spent 7 seasons in Major League Baseball, winning 102 games and losing 63 (.618 winning percentage).
  • He's consistently thrown over 200 innings for the last 6 seasons.
  • His best season was in 2002 when he won 23 games, lost 5 and had an ERA of 2.75 along with an ERA+ of 169, he was rewarded with the Cy Young Award that season and won his only playoff start that season.
  • He's 7-7 in the playoffs with an ERA of 3.25, those stats are swayed by his awful start against Detroit last season
  • He threw over 220 innings in the last two seasons and had an ERA+ of 116 both seasons
  • VORP (2004-2006): 31.5, 41.8, 49.9 Wells (2004-2006): 30.8, 32.0, 58.9

So why put the Wells comps? Because, they were given the exact same amount of money over the same number of years. While Zito did not progress as much in 2005, he had a bigger jump in 2006. Why am I mentioning this? Because, Zito would look good between Halladay and Burnett right now and Wells could be playing on his contract year in the outfield...
Ok so what do the 'experts' think about it?

  • Crasnick has no opinion apparently but breaks down the signing...points out Zito's durability and the fact that he's less of an injury risk because he's not a hard thrower. Also, his fit as a flyball pitcher in the cavernous SF park seems positive
  • Keith Law...hates it! Three big reasons: length, declining fastball, 'overratedness'
  • Ratto seems confused about his own opinion...'bold, insane, needed'
  • Jacob Luft thinks they'll still finish 4th
  • More opinions to come I'm sure

So what do I think? People are desperate for pitching and the Giants paid for an overrated yet quite good pitcher. This is only $25 million than the Red Sox paid to sign an unproven asian pitcher for 6 seasons.

So moving on...there's an excellent article on BBTF about rotations! Read it today, I will use it soon to analyze certain rotations.

Finally, another segment of 'ask dan':

Who's the next GM you're doing? I nominate Ash to compare him with Ricciardi!

Actually, Ash is the one I was thinking of doing, then I thought about Mark Shapiro and Brian Cashman. So it will be one of the three...not sure which one yet but most probably Ash.

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