Monday, January 01, 2007

Baltimore vs. Toronto Part 2

Well before we get to a bit of a statistical analysis, there's some required reading

  • Dayn Perry weighs in on the Mets off-season and says that it helps Minaya's rep
  • Kevin Kennedy uses the Cardinals as a model for General Managers
  • Slezak compares Ken Williams to Billy Beane...and uses the Beane Count title...
  • I also updated the AL East Review and will work on updating the free agents table throughout the day
On to the Orioles vs Jays argument...I've posted an article I just wrote up here with the statistics study I completed to try to evaluate what my gut was telling me. Naturally, the study goes against my gut, which is why you should always thorougly examine something in as many ways as possible. Do I retract my statement? Not at all, the gut says the Orioles could be 2007's Detroit Tigers...while I think every day of how one injury can derail the entire Jays season. Quick overview of the two teams compartively:
  • The Jays have an advantage offensively, but the Orioles offense should not be dismissed, they have a better catcher, second baseman and shortstop, along with a better bench. The Jays' position players are not as versatile as the Orioles and therefore, since a couple have injury histories, it will be tougher to adjust if injuries hit. The lineup is also very right-handed, Stairs and Overbay are the only dependable lefty bats.
  • The biggest difference is, surprise surprise, at shortsop where Tejada is a much superior player than the Clayton/McDonald combo
  • The rotation advantage goes to the Jays because of their top duo of Halladay and Burnett , however Bedard is getting better and Mazzone's impact should not be dismissed in his second season. Also, the Jays have injury concerns with two of their top three starters (Chacin and Burnett) and although they have tremendous depth at the position...the depth starters should not be counted upon to replace Halladay or Burnett for an extended period of time
  • The Jays have the better closer after having signed him away from the Orioles last season but the Orioles have great veteran depth in the pen and the Jays do not yet know who will be relied upon as their top reliever after Ryan. So the bullpen is better in Baltimore until the ninth inning
So what does everyone think? The Jays obviously look like the better team but one injury to one of the key players could be over for the Jays. If I'm the Jays, I'm more scared of Halladay, Burnett, Glaus, Wells or Zaun going down than the Orioles are about any player except Tejada or Hernandez I believe.


Anonymous said...

Baltimore looks okay on paper. The Jays look much better however. Even with injuries, I still believe Jays over Orioles.

Anonymous said...

Gut vs stats is an interesting battle...I guess we can't go against your gut but as you found the Jays are the better team.

Anonymous said...

I think the Jays need to package a couple young arms and get a real third starter so we can stop worrying about an injury to Roy or AJ

Anonymous said...

What makes you think the Orioles have better pitching depth?

I evaluate pitching depth as pitchers who can step in as a starter for a few weeks.

The Orioles may have their ace in Bedard, but Benson hasn't done well and Cabrera is inconsistent. Jaret Wright and Lopez?

How about their young guns? Loewen and Penn? Well their performance at the MLB so far has shown no indication that they will get better. You can't automatically assume that since they have done well in the minors, they will do well in the majors. If thats the case, then the Jays have much better depth.

Taubenheim did pretty well after the infection.
Marcum did well down there.
McGowan did a solid job
As did Rosario.

Just because the Orioles have their 5-man rotation set-up doesn't mean that they will have better numbers.

Anonymous said...

Burnett is so overrated!!! Plus Benson will have a spot in the rotation instead of Lopez...

Anonymous said...

Thanks for doing that comp DJ. Baseball is funny, the O's could surprise however I still think their chances at competing are slim. Love going with gut predictions though, so I can understand what you're going on.

PS, I think Hill will outperform Roberts starting next year.

Anonymous said...

The O's get preseason praise every year to some extent, and end up sucking every year to a greater extent. This season will likely be no different. It may take 50 - 100 games for things to settle, but they will be down with the d-rays like they always are.