Free Agent Review

As of yet in free agency, teams seem to be paying incredible amounts for hitters. Looking at Value Over Replacement Player and the salaries handed out during free agency is a good way to measure what teams are paying for the production received in free agency. Obviously, it is very basic and does not factor in defense or any personality characteristics such as leadership. The data can be found HERE. Of the 19 hitters who were given contracts worth over $1 million a season as of Sunday; teams are handing out an average of $479,680.77 per run in VORP, according to the 2006 statistics. When looking at the hitters’ VORP averaged out over the last three seasons, the amount increases to $509,906.71 although this is heavily affected by the contract given to Scott Spiezio, when this contract is removed the average team is giving out $319,312.99 per run in VORP.

It seems most teams are looking at long term statistics and not just last year’s production, as 11 of the 19 hitters signed had a worse year, according to VORP, than their 3 year average. Spiezio is one of the exceptions, he cashed in on his first positive VORP in 3 seasons (possibly because of the move to the National League) and his contract looks good if only taking in only last season’s numbers.

So as of yet, the worse signing according to VORP is Alex Gonzalez who was signed more so for his defense than any offensive production he could provide. Impressively Kaz Matsui and Wes Helms are the best bargains this season according to the stats. I’m honestly surprised Kaz did not get more attention for playing a difficult position and being better than the replacement player.

The Cubs *GASP* overpaid for their free agents except Aramis Ramirez although if you look at the 3 year average, Pierre may actually be a comparative bargain compared to the other signings. The fat contract handed out to Gary Matthews Jr. is an overpay (again in this year’s market) but only if you look at the 3 year average. If you look at only the 2006 VORP, the contract may be a comparative bargain.

Finally, Jays fans may be interested to know that Frank Catalanotto is a comparative bargain in this year’s market as he is paid less than the average per VORP for both the 2006 seasons and the three year average. Frank Thomas is a comparative bargain also as he is vastly underpaid according to alst year’s numbers and is right around the average when utilizing the three year average numbers, that includes his injury riddled 2005 season.

As for Rod Barajas, if he is signed for two years, $ six million? Well if you only look at last year’s numbers, it’s not pretty…but if you look at the three year average VORP, he’s right around the average also.