News from here and...there

Well well well...lots of differing opinions about yesterday's signing but encouraging signs that JP is trying to completely stock his pitching staff. If he gets two starting pitchers, the rotation would look like Halladay-Burnett-SP1-SP2-Chacin, leaving a whole lot of young pitchers out of a job. Let's see if he signs both what he would do. I think a trade involving Chacin or a couple of the young arms may be coming, hopefully for some impact position prospects (hopefully in the middle infield). In this article, it is mentioned that Russ will start the season at AAA as I expected. I did some more work on the free agent database to add the latest signings, I found some interesting tidbits offensively...

• Clayton and Counsell both had negative VORP years last season, have very similar 3 year VORP avgs and are relatively the same age. Counsell got two years, $6 million while Clayton got a one year commitment from the Jays for $1.5 million. The difference may come in Counsell's better defensive numbers last season...but still looks like JP got a relative bargain in this market, Clayton's $/3 year avg VORP is the 3rd lowest of all free agent signings
• Zaun is another terrific bargain when looking at both last year's VORP and the 3 year avg VORP, he's under $250,000 per run for each category.
• Adam Kennedy is an amazing bargain in this market, as was talked about when he signed that contract

the Jays have a new Shortstop

Well I thought I wouldn't miss too much if I took a personal day but the Jays decided to sign another free agent: Royce Clayton! Ken Rosenthal reports that it's a done deal, 1 year, $1.5 million. Clayton is not the most impressive signing but comes cheaply and has great hair! Seriously though the guy brings a good glove but not much of a bat as you can tell by looking at his OPS+ of 66 last year and his total VORP of -1.9. It will allow the Jays to keep Adams at AAA to help him find whatever he lost while they carry McDonald and Clayton as 2nd and 3rd middle infielders. Clayton is a pure SS while McDonald can play both middle infield positions and has played SOME 3b. I wouldn't be surprised to see McDonald practice a bit more at 3B to make him Glaus' backup.

• Bigger news may be in this article, where it is stated that the Clayton signing is to allow money to go to TWO starters, not just one...Lilly and Meche? WOW!
  
• The full story on Barajas
• The Jays heavily courted Meche yesterday and would love to end up with him. Hentgen and Thomas entertained him as well as the staff
• In this article, it is stated that Wells is not being used in 2007 promotional material, just in case
  
• The Yanks have won the rights to the second Japanese pitcher to hit the market, paying $25 million. This should decrease their interest in one Theodore Lilly.
  
• Kevin Millar will rejoin the Orioles who have spent a lot of money in free agency as of yet on their bullpen, 1b and backup catcher. Rosenthal speaks of the bullpen "upgrade".
  

Book Corner: Freakonomics

I've decided that I will start a bi-weekly(or-so) column about different litterature that I recommend, mostly baseball books that you may have skipped over or that people don't know about yet. This time however I am starting with a book which isn't about baseball *gasp*. It's a book I recently completed and it's called freakonomics. I know the name sounds strange, however the book is written by an award winning economist who uses his knowledge to explore social issues instead of the same old economics issues.
It's a great read and written simply (because of the influence of a co-writer), and surprisingly not as dryly as I was expecting. In one chapter, the book explores the inside workings of a drug dealing gang and finds out that their inner workings are very much like that of a big company with a board of directors, 'district managers' and then the underpaid grunts. I found this chapter to be absolutely fascinating. In another, he examines a conspiracy of match fixing in sumo wrestling along with cheating teachers who help their students perform well on state exams to keep their positions. Throughout the book, there is a heavy usage of statistics which is one reason I recommend it to readers of this page. But it is an absolutely fascinating read and I truly recommend it to everyone to read something entertaining and that may make you explore new ways of thinking. Click on the title to be brought straight to the amazon page, i believe it's on sale for under $20...

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything

• Also, JP Ricciardi missed an interview on the FAN tonight because he was entertaining a free agent. The mystery man is Gil Meche who was at the Leafs game tonight!
• Updates on the hat below!
  

A new hat!

Well the Toronto Blue Jays are unveiling a new hat today at the Frank Thomas press conference! It's a black hat with a scripted "T" in the gray/blue scheme. This hat will most probably replace the grey hat that the team stopped wearing last year. A pic of the new hat (and new DH) to the right..News from the press conference:

• They came to terms with Gregg Zaun at "midnight last night", he "was the first choice all along"
  
• Overbay gave up his number and Thomas said "he'd do something special for him". Thomas enjoyed his convo with Lyle and mentioned that Lyle was considering going back to number 11
  
• No payroll yet, or at least they won't reveal it
  
  Now look at this jersey, it was suggested that we should compare the T's...and sure enough the T from the Toronto in the jersey does not match the T on the hat. So hopefully the hat won't be worn with the jersey that says Toronto and only with the Black 'Jays' jersey. I can't believe they did not use the same script....And confirmation from the star that the Jays will no longer wear their grey caps and will alternate between the black hats. Godfrey was quoted as saying that the fans and players like them most.
  
  
  • Late day update...The Yanks have won the rights to the second Japanese pitcher to hit the market, paying $25 million.

There's gotta be a morning after

Ok well...the Jays catcher next season will be....Gregg Zaun! According to Jeff Blair, the Jays have re-signed their catcher to a 2 year, $7.25 million deal that includes an option for a third season for $3.5 million based on games played. So the two sides conceded a bit of their demands to come to an agreement. It seems that Rod Barajas did not show up for the physical because there was pressure from the MLBPA to ask for more money than what he took. The deal would have paid him less annually than he made last year, something not appreciated by the rest of the Players' Association. He fired his agent and will now be looking for a new deal with a new team with a new agent. Buster Olney meanwhile suggests that maybe the Jays are covering for Barajas and that he failed his physical, unlikely but you never know. More as details break...

• Orioles off-season need? Bullpen help apparently. After signing set-up man Danys Baez and LOOGY Jamie Walker, they now have signed Scott Williamson and have an agreement in principle with Chad Bradford. Lots of money to hand out but the bullpen was awful last year with an ERA over 5. It should give more confidence to their young pitching staff and they already traded one of their old bullpen arms for starter Jaret Wright.
  

WTH??? Zaun on the verge of re-signing?

Apparently, Zaun is on the verge of re-signing with the Blue Jays. This is completely out of left field.... There's no word on the Barajas deal but I'm guessing it's not official yet...Could JP have used the Barajas leverage to drive Zaun's price down? Or did he just sign two FA catchers to give him incredible depth at the position? Apparently, the Jays deal with Barajas deal broke down. Barajas allegedly cancelled his trip for his physical...More as soon as more breaks honestly... Jeff Blair reports that a source told him "One of these guys is going to be the Blue Jays catcher," and Ricciardi has said that there is no deal with anyone at this time and that he hopes to have a deal with someone done this week, no comment on Barajas. Newsday in NY reports that the Jays HAVE re-signed Zaun and that he was due to fly to New York to meet the Yanks' management but that has "been put on hold".

Jeff Blair has his latest article about John Gibbons and still no further news on the signings. He does however speculate about the lineup and shares the possibility of Wells hitting second. That would be one fearsome lineup if they did that.

Something we do know is that there should be a press conference for the Thomas signing tomorrow, where JP will probably avoid all catcher questions.

Sportsnet News at 10pm reports that Rod Barajas was not signed by the Jays...and that it COULD be that Zaun is CLOSE to re-signing with Toronto.

If EVER both are signed...here's their splits over the last three seasons
Barajas : vs LHP .712 OPS, vs RHP .746 OPS
Zaun: vs LHP .809 OPS, vs RHP .752 OPS

So I believe Zaun would get all the at-bats vs LHP if both are signed with them mostly splitting time vs RHP.

Free Agent Review

As of yet in free agency, teams seem to be paying incredible amounts for hitters. Looking at Value Over Replacement Player and the salaries handed out during free agency is a good way to measure what teams are paying for the production received in free agency. Obviously, it is very basic and does not factor in defense or any personality characteristics such as leadership. The data can be found HERE. Of the 19 hitters who were given contracts worth over $1 million a season as of Sunday; teams are handing out an average of $479,680.77 per run in VORP, according to the 2006 statistics. When looking at the hitters’ VORP averaged out over the last three seasons, the amount increases to $509,906.71 although this is heavily affected by the contract given to Scott Spiezio, when this contract is removed the average team is giving out $319,312.99 per run in VORP.

It seems most teams are looking at long term statistics and not just last year’s production, as 11 of the 19 hitters signed had a worse year, according to VORP, than their 3 year average. Spiezio is one of the exceptions, he cashed in on his first positive VORP in 3 seasons (possibly because of the move to the National League) and his contract looks good if only taking in only last season’s numbers.

So as of yet, the worse signing according to VORP is Alex Gonzalez who was signed more so for his defense than any offensive production he could provide. Impressively Kaz Matsui and Wes Helms are the best bargains this season according to the stats. I’m honestly surprised Kaz did not get more attention for playing a difficult position and being better than the replacement player.

The Cubs *GASP* overpaid for their free agents except Aramis Ramirez although if you look at the 3 year average, Pierre may actually be a comparative bargain compared to the other signings. The fat contract handed out to Gary Matthews Jr. is an overpay (again in this year’s market) but only if you look at the 3 year average. If you look at only the 2006 VORP, the contract may be a comparative bargain.

Finally, Jays fans may be interested to know that Frank Catalanotto is a comparative bargain in this year’s market as he is paid less than the average per VORP for both the 2006 seasons and the three year average. Frank Thomas is a comparative bargain also as he is vastly underpaid according to alst year’s numbers and is right around the average when utilizing the three year average numbers, that includes his injury riddled 2005 season.

As for Rod Barajas, if he is signed for two years, $ six million? Well if you only look at last year’s numbers, it’s not pretty…but if you look at the three year average VORP, he’s right around the average also.

Early Morning news

• The Rod Barajas signing is close to being official, varying reports on money and it seems to be around a 2 years/$5.25 million contract .
• In that same article, it says that the Jays are in a 5 team race for Kennedy and they are in talks with Meche, Lilly, Padilla and Mulder
• Of course, it also says "For the second winter in a row, Ricciardi has made the loudest noise among teams bidding on high-level free agents."...yeh except for the Cubs who have signed both Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano along with Mark Derosa
• Afternoon Update: Rotoworld has a wrapup of the AFL that includes Jays prospects (near the bottom).
  
• Danys Baez is joining the improving O's bullpen with a 3 year/$19 million deal. He didn't have the best season last year but his stats with Tampa Bay the year before make this news worthy.
  
• The Red Sox are actively looking to trade Manny, including a possible three way involving the Giants, and are close to signing JD Drew.
• The Dodgers are close to signing Randy Wolf to add to what would be a good rotation. This may start setting the bar for free agent starters and speed that process up
• Later on today, I will post an article examining the free agents signed up to this point and the money they are making. Hopefully it makes for an interesting read.

Depodesta's Reign Part 2: Trade Deadline Fun

Here's part two for your reading pleasure, the article will most probably be posted Tuesday if not earlier. I'm also working on a free agent review for the hitters as of yet utilizing *gasp* sabrmetric statistics.

9: Traded Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion to Florida for Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny and minor leaguer Bill Murphy
This was THE trade completed by Depo. In the end, people will point to this trade as the most significant deal he made. He traded lifetime Dodger and catcher Lo Duca, a fan favorite however overrated he was, along with fire-baller Mota and outfielder Encarnacion to a Marlin team that was very much in the race for the NL East title. In return he acquired a player that, for critics, would come to represent the fault in sabrmertic logic; walk machine Choi along with starting pitcher Brad Penny and a minor league player. Unfortunately, Depodesta didn't factor in his manager's feelings about the trade, and Jim Tracy often took his anger out on Choi, even benching him in favor of Jason Phillips. Choi was lost on waivers to Boston after the Nomar signing, but for a minimum salary for parts of two seasons, he provided the Dodgers with a total Value Over Replacement Player of 10.1 and an OPS+ in his first full Dodger season of 110. Penny meanwhile is the gem of this trade, he is the only player still playing for one of the teams and has performed well for the Dodgers. In the past two seasons he's won a combined 23 games and has posted ERA+ of 104 and 106 with VORPs over 30 in both seasons. However, he was injured in 2004; barely threw for the Dodgers during their playoff run, and threw only one inning in the playoffs.

LoDuca performed well for the Marlins until his trade to the Mets before the 2006 season. He's a below average hitter (OPS+ of 82 and 92) but brings a better value than a replacement player (VORPs of 4.2 and 21.5) along with leadership for pitchers. Mota regressed upon his arrival to Florida ; after a 2003 ERA+ of 204 (with an ERA of 1.97 in 105 innings) and an ERA+ of 193 in his 63 innings with the Dodgers in 2004, he posted an ERA+ of 85 with Florida after the trade. The following season, he threw 67 innings and managed only an ERA+ of 85 before being traded to the Red Sox. Encarnacion would not help the playoff chase either with an OPS+ of 85 and VORP of 1.9 but would perform well the following season with an OPS+ of 113 and a VORP of 28.3 before leaving Florida as a free agent.

As previously stated, this is the trade that critics will point to when talking about Depo. The sabrmetric beauty that was Choi did not work out as planned (although he did give good production for his salary) and pundits say Depo was stupid to trade so much for him. But, he acquired a starting pitcher who has been effective for the Dodgers and is still on the team without giving up anyone with a larger statistical value. It can also be argued that Choi almost played as well as Encarnacion in the season following the trade!

10: Traded Koyie Hill, Reggie Abercombie and minor leaguer Bill Murphy to Arizona for Steve Finley and Brent Mayne
Originally, according to some sources, the deal with Florida was to pick up pieces in order for the Dodgers to acquire Randy Johnson. Obviously that trade did not happen and instead the Dodgers acquired Finley and Mayne from the D'backs to help improve their playoff bound team. Both would only spend the remainder of the season as Dodgers with very different productions during this time. Finely would perform well as evidenced by his VORP of 12.2 and his OPS+ of 112 and helped the Dodgers fill a void in centre field in their playoff chase. Mayne would bring some experience at catcher after the loss of Lo Duca but horribly at the plate (-6.3 VORP, OPS+ of 29). Both Hill and Abercrombie would be plucked off waivers from the D'backs with Hill only getting 114 at bats in Arizona and Abercrombie getting none. Murphy has not made the Majors to this date and is not ranked as a top prospect from any list I've seen.

11: Traded Tom Martin to Atlanta, Received minor leaguer Matt Merricks
*Yawn* Tom Martin threw 19.3 total innings for the Braves before being released in 2005, although he did post a VORP of 3.8 in his short time there in 2004, while Merricks hasn't made the Majors.

12: Traded Dave Roberts to the Red Sox, Received minor leaguer Henri Stanley
I can't quite remember if Roberts had an impact on the Red Sox during the 2004 season…it's really just not coming up! OH WAIT. Roberts would perform well in his partial season with the Red Sox with a VORP of 1.7, OPS+ of 94 and 5 stolen bases. He will be forever remembered for the steal in the ALCS that changed the Red Sox' fortune and being traded for a loot including Jay Payton immediately after the World Series. Legend has it, that the trade involving Roberts and Payton was actually negotiated during the World Series. Stanley has not made the Majors and is not a top prospect to my knowledge.

the Milwaukee/Arizona trade

So if you haven't heard of it there was a trade yesterday involving Milwauke and Arizona, a six player deal that is quite interesting and may be one of those trades where both sides win...

To Milwaukee:
Johnny Estrada: A 31 year old catcher who last season had an 91 OPS+ in over 100 games and had asked to be traded by Arizona when they wouldn't sign him long term. He had a VORP of 14.3 last season and will replace the aging Damian Miller as the everyday catcher.
Greg Aquino: A 29 year old reliever who last season had a 107 ERA+ in 48.3 IPs after horrible 2005 along with a VORP of 6.2.
Claudio Vargas: A 29 year old starting pitcher who last season had his highest ERA+ since his rookie year: 99 ERA+. He also had a career high 167.7 IP along with a VORP of 13.4.

To Arizona:
Doug Davis: A 31 year old starter who last season had a 91 ERA+ (lowest since first full season in Majors). He has pitched over 200 innings for 3 straight years, had a VORP of 18.8 and will be a free agent after this season.
Dana Eveland: A 23 year old LHP with a 55 ERA+ in 27.7 IPs in the Majors. He was much better in AAA with 2.73 ERA, 110 Ks in 105 IPs.
Dave Kryznel: A 26 year old CF, currently playing in AAA where he had a line of .213/.314/.359 with 23 stolen bases

I think there's a better chance that Milwaukee would get the better end of this deal than Arizona. Davis has been a good pitcher and they badly needed someone behind Brandon Webb but Vargas comes off a career season. Hopefully for them it's buy low (Davis), sell high (Vargas), however they could lose Davis after this season. Meanwhile, Estrada will be replaced by 25 year old Chris Snyder and a prospect. The prospects acquired in this deal weren't found in any top ten lists although Eveland seems interesting as a LOOGY and possibly more. This seems like a good baseball deal on all sides, the future will determine it...

• JD Drew is close to being a Red Sox according to some sources
• Look below for the first part of the Depodesta article about his trades in his 2 years as general manager. The second part should be posted tomorrow.

Depodesta's Reign Part 1: One busy off-season!

As promised Part 1 of the Article on Depo...enjoy!

Hired by the Los Angeles Dodgers in February 2004, Paul DePodesta was viewed as the next great young General Manager in Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, it did not work out and he was fired in October of the next season. During that time period he completed 17 trades, a number that is even more impressive with the knowledge that all these transactions were completed in a year's span between March 29, 2004 and March 31, 2005. So was he that bad a General Manager to be fired after his second season? Was it a problem with management that led to his firing? In this article, we will examine his trades with a closer look to attempt to identify why the prodigal son was fired so quickly.

1: Traded Jason Frasor to Toronto in exchange for Jayson Werth
Just before the season, the Jays figured out that although they had no room for Werth on the roster, he had impressed enough through spring training that he would not be able to get through waivers. The Dodgers were interested and willing to give up young reliever Jason Frasor in what would be DePo's first trade as General Manager. Both players were earning the minimum in their first season and produced well with VORPs over 15. Frasor continued his solid pitching for the Jays throughout the next two seasons while Werth was not on the Dodgers roster in 2006. The Dodgers were able to get a good reserve outfielder for a reliever that they didn't feel they had much use for, although he has been quite solid as a Blue Jay.

2: Traded Steve Colyer to Detroit for Cody Ross
Cody Ross barely got a chance to play for the Dodgers (39 at bats) before being shipped to Cincinnati in 2006. The left-handed Colyer came out of the Detroit bullpen 41 times, even winning a game while establishing an ERA+ of 70 and a VORP of -1.7. Pretty inconsequential trade all around.

3: Traded Andrew Brown and Franklin Gutierrez to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
The slap hitting Gutierrez had 137 at bats with Cleveland in 2006 with an OPS+ of 69 while slugging only .360 and achieving a VORP of -3.6. Andrew Brown, 23 years old, threw 10 innings for Cleveland in 2006. Bradley had two good seasons with the Dodgers, with OPS+ of 108 and 121, a total VORP of 49.2 along with 29 total win shares. He was traded to Oakland before the 2005 season with Antonio Perez for outfield prospect Andre Ethier.

4: Traded Jolbert Cabrera to Seattle for Aaron Looper and Ryan Ketchner
* Traded Aaron Looper to Seattle for Glenn Bott
Looper was designated for assignment to make room for Bradley, Seattle was interested and he was traded back to Seattle soon after for Glenn Bott. Unfortunately, neither player would ever play in the Majors again; actually Jolbert Cabrera was the only player involved that would following the transaction. He would play 7 different positions for Seattle in 2004 while achieving an OPS+ of 87, a VORP of 7.5 and driving in 47 runs.

5: Traded Jason Romano to Tampa Bay in exchange for Antonio Perez
Jason Romano's stay in Tampa Bay lasted only 4 games before he was plucked off waivers by Cincinatti. Perez had a solid 2005 with an OPS+ of 104, VORP of 15.7 in 259 at bats before being traded with Milton Bradley for Andre Ethier. This is definitely one of the better trades of the off-season, acquiring a player who would help out the team in the present and was then used as a piece to acquire a good young player with a bright future.

6: Traded Rick White to Cleveland in exchange for minor leaguer Trey Dyson
After signing Rick White in the off-season, he was quickly shipped to Cleveland in exchange for a minor leaguer who would never see time in the Majors. White, meanwhile, would pitch adequately for the Indians; in 78 innings he had an ERA+ of 86 and a VORP of 2.7.

7: Traded Tanyon Sturtze to the Yankees for Brian Myrow
Mynow would barely play for the Dodgers with 20 at bats in 2005 while Sturtze became a mainstay in the Yankee bullpen although he never threw exceptionally well. His ERA+ was of 82 in 2004 and 94 in 2005 in over 150 total innings between the two seasons while establishing a total VORP of 9.1 during his three season with the Yankees.

Reported Friday Night Signings

This may be the last time I go out during a Habs game, standing at the bar I found out that the Canadiens came back and won against the best team in the division with one second left in OT, and that there were many reported signings including new info on Rod Barajas. BTW for those looking for the Beane Count wrapup, look lower and there will be a new article posted most probably tomorrow on another GM...one that didn't last two years in his job...

• Jeff Blair has more specifics on the signing that will most probably happen on Tuesday stating that Barajas has a 2 year, $5.5-6 million contract. It seems that Zaun rejected their offer and is currently looking at offers to be a backup(?!?) and that Ricciardi wanted a catcher before showing up to the Winter Meetings. If Zaun signs with another team and is offered arbitration by the Jays, that will mean one more sandwich pick for the team.
  
  Barajas doesn't have a good bat (OPS+ of 78, career high of 99 the year before) but does have the potential for a bit more pop than Zaun and is 5 years younger. The Jays will lose a clubhouse presence but should improve their awful catching defense and maybe catch a few runners this season! Last season they allowed 130 steals while only catching 32 runners (19.75% rate), Barajas caught 19 of the 57 steal attempts against him last season (33.3%). If runners are scared of this arm, they will also attempt to take the extra base less often, which would be huge for the Jays pitching staff.
  
• The Giants are close to signing two free agents: Rich Aurilia and Dave Roberts. The Aurilia deal is said to be a 2 year deal worth $2-3 million per season while the Roberts deal is said to be 2-3 years at $5-6 million per season. Gotta say, I'm surprised that Roberts will not be making more after the ridiculous Pierre signing. If Roberts can reproduce his godly stolen base ratio of 2006 (or 2004), two seasons where he combined to be caught a total of 9 times with 79 steals, this signing is a steal...He seemed to be comfortable in San Diego also as he put up his first two seasons of OPS+ over 100 so maybe this trend can continue in the spacious AT&T park.
• Saturday trade: Check it out, analysis tomorrow when I actually have time
  

Carlos Lee takes a trip to Houston...

and gets a 6 year, $100 million deal for it. Not bad at all for Carlos who had a career year last year with 37 home runs, .540 slugging and an OPS+ of 125. This is a guy who's combined VORP (47.3) was lower than Gary Matthews Jr. (50.0) last season and he'll be earning more than $16 million per year for playing a corner outfield position (and not especially well at that). I think Ricciardi really saw where the market was headed and was smart to strike on Thomas quickly so that the price would not go up, nor would he be stuck giving extra years to a player like Lee.

Night Update:
It appears the Jays may have signed Rod Barajas with this coming from ESPN Insider MLB Rumors:
"Oh, Canada!

Nov 24 - Free-agent catch Rod Barajas, formerly with Texas, is expected to sign with the Blue Jays next week, if he passes a physical early in the week."

As soon as more details break, they will be here. The good news of this signing would be that we would probably gain a sandwich pick from Zaun leaving, which would be our 5th draft pick in the first two rounds gained of the offseason.

Beane count posted, wrapped up!

Well the entire Beane Count has now been posted, hopefully it’s not another slow news day today, however the market is very much like Ricciardi predicted, quiet in between the meetings…

Of the 29 trades analyzed in the Beane Count:
12 were Player Acquisitions in which Beane gave up prospects for a more polished player

9 were baseball deals in which players of similar talent levels and contracts were traded for each other

3 were role player dumps and 3 were Dumps of bigger salaries

2 were role player acquisitions

An interesting fact is of the 3 big salary dumps, Beane actually acquired players that ended up being more productive than the players traded while ridding the A’s of over $11 million. This is mostly because of Terrence Long, however Oakland acquired a total of 13 VORP runs by means of these trades and that does not include the fact that Long was flipped for Mark Kotsay, who is still with the team. The role player dumps were not as successful as the players traded saved the team around $2 million and the loss of VORP was of 17.3. The 2 role player acquired trades made up for this however, as the players acquired cost about $2 million and the gain in VORP was of 18.3. The Ron Gant trade excluded from this observation for entertainment purposes was an acquisition of around $1 million in salary for a VORP of 4.4.

The baseball deals ended up with a BIG advantage in VORP in Oakland’s favour of almost 250 runs. The difference in salaries, from what I could find, was to Oakland’s disadvantage as they picked up around $8 million in salary (after withdrawing cash traded). But imagine, 9 trades made by Billy Beane and he added 250 runs of VORP while adding only $8 million in payroll! There’s also the added value of these trades by later trades of Terrence Long (Kenny Rogers), 4 first round picks (Izzy, Damon), and Ted Lilly (Carlos Pena). All in all, Beane seems to have dominated when making baseball deals.

Beane paid a hefty price to acquire players that could help his team win now as he ended up losing almost 100 runs in VORP in these types of trades while paying over $10 million more in first year salaries. The losses of Karsay, Bonderman and Hinske really skew these numbers but sometimes you have to pay a hefty price to win now.

In the end, it seems that Beane really did have some success with trades in his first five season, more success than Ricciardi...

So there you have it, the Beane Count in all its glory! Read it if you'd like, stay tuned, the next analysis is already being worked on. Check out the Ricciardi Project parts if you haven't already...

Beane Count Part 6

The before last part of the Beane Count is up today since it's a slow news day as of yet, let's hope the action picks up later on!

Trade number 22: Mark Bellhorn to the Chicago Cubs for Adam Morrissey
Bellhorn, a former 2 nd round pick, was deemed expendable because of two emerging youngsters at his positions, Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez. The 27 year old was shipped to the Cubs in exchange for Morrissey, who would never have a meaningful impact in the Majors. He exploded onto the scene in his first season at Wrigley Field, establishing an OPS+ of 133 and VORP of 42.1 , with 27 home runs in 445 at bats. He regressed in the following season with an OPS+ of 69 in 139 at bats with Chicago before being traded in-season for Jose Hernandez (who was later utilized with a minor leaguer and Bobby Hill in the package to acquire Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton). All in all, Beane gave up a player making near minimum salary who gave another team good returns for nothing.

Trade number 23: Eric Hinske, Justin Miller to Toronto for Billy Koch
After letting his assistant, J.P. Ricciardi leave the organization to take over as general manager of the Blue Jays, Beane was nice enough to complete Ricciardi's first trade. In the process, he acquired a closer to replace the departed Izzy. Koch saved 44 games in Oakland in his only season, establishing a VORP of 24.2 and an ERA+ of 142 in over 90 innings of work. Miller barely threw for the Jays, however, Eric Hinske had an incredible season at third base in his first season, winning the Rookie of the Year award and establishing a VORP of 55.4. He would be signed to a long term extension and would never produce at the same rate again. Koch meanwhile was trade in the off-season along with Neil Cotts for closer Keith Foulke. All in all, this was a good trade by Beane giving up a good prospect who was blocked by Eric Chavez and an average pitcher for a needed commodity in Koch.

Trade 24: Mark Guthrie, Tyler Yates to the Mets for David Justice and $1.2 million
Apparently, Justice was not to be served at Shea Stadium. A week after acquiring the veteran outfielder from the Yankees, the Mets shipped him and some cash to Oakland for two pitchers. In Moneyball, it is stated that the Yankees picked up an additional sum so that Oakland only paid $3.5 of the $7 million owed to Justice. The outfielder was referred to as an “experiment” by Oakland assistant GM Paul Deposteta, whose study found that aging players were most likely to retain their ability to get on base than anything else. In his final season, Justice showed that he could still get on base (70 walks for an OBP of .376) and he established a VORP of 18.4, and an OPS+ of 106. The pitchers traded by Oakland both only spent one season in New York for a total VORP of 9.4. This may have been the experiment that made Oakland take a chance on Frank Thomas in 2006, something that paid off immensely for the team.

Trade 25: Jason Hart, Gerald Laird, Ryan Ludwick, Mario Ramos to Texas for Carlos Pena and Mike Venafro
Sometimes teams are just looking to swap prospects which is exactly what happened in this trade. Beane had long coveted Texas ' 2 nd best prospect Carlos Pena and was able to acquire him along with left-handed reliever Mike Venafro. The deal with Texas was completed with former Oakland scouting director Grady Fuson who had overseen the drafting of the four prospects traded to Texas . Unfortunately, none of the prospects have made very significant contributions as of yet for Texas . The only prospect who had a season above replacement level was catcher Gerald Laird, who in 2006 had a VORP of 12.2 with an OPS+ of 102. Also, Ryan Ludwick was traded to Cleveland in a deal that saw Shane Spencer and Ricardo Rodriguez come to Texas . But these were not the returns the Texas organization was expecting from 4 of Oakland 's top 12 prospects at the time (according to Baseball America ) including their top two prospects. Meanwhile, Pena struggled as an Athletic and was shipped to Detroit by mid-season in a three-way trade we will examine tomorrow. Venafro spent one season with the Athletics and never contributed significantly in the Major Leagues after the trade.

Trade 26: Luis Vizcaino to the Rangers for Justin Duchscherer
After two seasons of under average pitching from Vizcaino, Oakland shipped him off to Texas in exchange for reliever Justin Duchscherer. Texas flipped him to Milwaukee for Jesus Pena almost immediately and Vizcaino thrived with the Brewers; throwing 81 innings with an ERA+ of 134 and even gathering five saves with his 2.99 ERA. Pena never threw in the Majors again after the trade, leaving Texas without anything valuable. Duchscherer started three games in his first season with Oakland before becoming a reliever in 2004. He has been a positive contributor coming out of the A's bullpen with ERA+s of 129, 143, 204 & 152, along with VORPs of 4, 30.2, 30 and 19.6 in his four seasons in Oakland while earning near league minimum for everyone of those seasons. His ERA+ of 204 in 2005 was second on the team to closer Huston Street . This has been a great trade by Beane and co. by trading a reliever who had been effective for one that has been very effective for the team while earning near the league minimum.

Vernon Wells

He is a special player who utilizes every one of the 5 tools. He had a career year last season hitting in front of Troy Glaus and could this year hit in front of Thomas and Glaus. He is also the Jays most valuable trade chip and is being talked about A LOT this off-season. It's tough to say whether the team is better with or without him, however the Angels are trying to make that decision easier for Blue Jays management. It seems that for a big hitter such as Wells, Jones or Manny they are starting the package with Ervin Santana and Scot Shields, two inexpensive quality arms. The Angels may not be getting much action from these packages because it seems they are close to a 5 year, $50 million contract with Gary Matthews Jr. to play Centre Field.

Ricciardi and co. are afraid of how much Wells could cost in free agency next year or how much he could cost in an extension right now. I'm not convinced that he would get as much as thought in an open market after next season. As of right now, there would be 5 full-time centre fielders on next year's free agent market including three who are near the top of the class (Wells, A. Jones and Hunter), the other two being Mark Kotsay and Aaron Rowand. There would be more players for teams to spread their money around and therefore there may be less money for Wells. All that is important is that Ricciardi better make his decision soon and know that this decision, maybe more than any other, will be looked back upon the most.

• This isn't baseball related, however it is football related, there's a high schooler who is absolutely incredible. On this page, there are two videos of him, one of him hurdling an opposing player and the other of an incredible run where he just can't be tackled!
• Forget the Angels in the Wells sweepstakes. They have signed Gary Matthews Jr. to a 5 year, $50 million deal. This also impacts the Jays in compensation for Justin Speie, because Matthews is higher ranked than Speier, the Jays will now receive a sandwich pick along with a second rounder instead of the first rounder.
  

Congratulations Morneau

Well, it looks like a Canadian has won the American League MVP for the first time. Minnesota Twins' first baseman Justin Morneau was named AL MVP today, narrowly beating out Derek Jeter. He's only 25 and last season he hit over 30 home runs, gathered over 120 RBIs and had a batting average of .321. This gives Canada the reigning MVPs in three of the four major league sports (Steve Nash in the NBA and Joe Thornton in the NHL being the others).

5 years, $45 million???

5 years, $45 million. $9 million a year! I wanted to write about this last night, but I just knew that I would not get any intelligent thoughts on paper aside from outrage. You know that baseball teams have found new sources of revenues when Juan Pierre just received that fat contract. Pierre is a 28 year old leadoff hitter who can get hits (.292 BA last year) but isn’t able to draw walks (32), who steals bases (58) but gets caught way too often (20), adding barely 5 runs to his team’s totals with his stolen bases. He has only had one OPS+ over 100, the benchmark for being average. All in all, Pierre is a good player (18 VORP), just maybe not a player who should be awarded $45 million deals. The market has simply gone crazy and it really makes you wonder who will be next to receive an incredible deal. At the beginning of the off-season, I thought it would be a smart strategy to trade Vernon Wells and sign a mid-level free-agent like Pierre or Roberts to leadoff and replace Wells in the outfield.

Now, Roberts should be demanding a short-term deal for about the same amount of money. He’s a smarter base stealer (49 steals, 6 caught stealing) and is recognized for changing the face of the ALCS when the Red Sox were down 3-1. He’s better at drawing walks (.360 OBP last year) and actually had OPS+ of 100 or over in the last two seasons and had a better VORP last season at 22.2. Originally, I thought he’d make $5 million over 3 years, I wouldn’t be surprised if he receives a deal similar to that of Frank Thomas’. So what’s going on this off-season? The pitchers aren’t even signed yet and already the deals seem incredibly high. It really puts a premium on growing your own talent in-house.

So are the Jays ahead? They could receive 4 draft picks in the top 50 for the loss of Speier and F-Cat unless Texas and Anaheim sign higher ranked free agents. If someone signs Molina before December 1^st, there’s a possibility of two more high draft picks, allowing Ricciardi to re-stock a farm system which is lacking in quality prospects. This could be the off-season that makes Ricciardi’s career as a general manager with signings, trades and draft pick compensation.

Buster Olney has this quote on his INSIDER column today:
"Our guys think it's going to be a very, very good high school draft," said J.P. Ricciardi, the Blue Jays' GM. "What this will allow us to do is to maybe draft some high school kids, and then give them some time to develop. When we first came in here, we really were in a position where we had to draft college kids. Not next year."

• Over at Batter's Box today they have a review of the Jays' prospects that are playing in the Arizona Fall League, it's a good read.
• Top Prospect Alert has a Top 100 prospects for the next season, note worthy for Jays fans is Adam Lind at 29 and 19 year old Travis Snider at 64.
  

A tale of three designated hitters

Frank Thomas - Blue Jays
Age 38
2006 season: .270/.381/.545, OPS+ of 141, 41.3 VORP (with Oakland)
2007 Salary: $1 million (+$4.56 million from signing bonus)

Jason Giambi - Yankees
Age 35
2006 season: .253/.413/.558, OPS+ of 154, 47.4 VORP
2007 salary: $21 million (+ $500k bonus)

David Ortiz - Red Sox
Age 30
2006 season: .287/.414/.636, OPS+ of 164, 76.8 VORP
2007 season: $13 million

Well the Jays obviously get the biggest 2007 bargain as Thomas’ contract will only count for about $5.5 million, his 2008 figure will be near Ortiz’s $13 million. All three are slow SLOW players and shouldn’t be counted on to steal any bases. It seems that all three AL East teams have decided that to win the division you’re going to need one heck of a good bat at DH which is smart. Why have a DH when he can barely hit better than an average player (like Hillenbrand)? The importance of the designated hitter comes in him being one of your best hitters because that is the only thing he needs to worry about. These three men will have a huge impact on the division race and as we saw in the division battle, it's important to have one steady DH.

Sunday night news

Well good evening, hope everyone had a great weekend. There's some action going on today, some that impacts the Jays and one HUGE signing in Chicago

• The Cubs have signed Alfonso Soriano to a monster 8 year, $136 million deal, the fifth biggest package ever given to a MLB player. They are as of yet not commenting on the signing but it looks like he may be their new leadoff hitter and centre fielder. He had 46 home runs to go along with 41 stolen bases last year and is an incredible offensive threat who also had an OPS+ of 136 last season. Gammons thinks it's a good move.
  Think the Cubs want to break the curse? As of yet they've signed Aramis Ramirez, Mark Derosa, Kerry Wood and Wade Miller along with trading for starter(?) Neil Cotts and hiring Lou Pinella.
• The Jays have apparently picked up four big draft picks today. Free agent reliever Justin Speier signed on with the Angels have a few effective season as the Jays setup man. That gives the team the Angels' first round pick(24th), as long as the Angels don't sign a higher rated free agent along with a sandwich pick between the first and second round. Frank Cat has also left the team, signing with the Texas Rangers. This would give the team the Rangers 1st round pick(16th) and a sandwich pick, the first round pick is again contingent on the Rangers not signing another higher rated free agent.
  IF the picks stay with the Jays and the team has as bad a system as critics are saying, that should change next year when they pick 5 times in the first 40 or so picks.