Alex Anthopoulos' first moves

Yesterday was the second anniversary of the hiring of Alex Anthopoulos as the Toronto Blue Jays general manager. During the next couple weeks, we’ll be chronologically going through his transactions and looking at the results of each one.

On October 3, 2009 the Toronto Blue Jays announced that their vice-president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous would become their new general manager after the dismissal of J.P. Ricciardi.

Anthopoulos’ first order of business was figuring out who would be brought back as major league free agents and who was not to come back to Toronto. Major leaguers, Kevin Millar, Marco Scutaro, Rod Barajas were all granted Free Agency. As was John McDonald, although he would be re-signed on November 25th to a 2 year, $3 million contract. He was a slightly above replacement level (WARs of 1.1 and 0.9 during those two seasons) before his trade with Aaron Hill for Kelly Johnson. That trade will be covered in a future post.

Kevin Millar retired from baseball after being release by the Cubs after the 2010 spring training. As a platoon player in Toronto, he didn’t provide even replacement level value with a WAR of negative 0.7. Barajas had played well for the Jays during his two seasons with WARs of 1.5 and 1.0, but by signing with the Mets, he would allow the Jays to receive the 41st pick in the 2010 draft as compensation. Scutaro was very good for the Blue Jays with WARs of 4.1 and 5.5 in 2008 and 2009. He also became the bigger prize, by letting him go via free agency, the Jays received the 34th and 80th picks in the 2010 draft when he signed with the division rival Red Sox for two years at $12.5 million.

Scutaro during his two contract years with the Red Sox put up WARs of 2.5 (oWAR of 2.3, dWAR of 0.2) and 1.4 (oWAR of 2.5, dWAR of -1.1) and OPS+ of 92 and 110. Offensively, he was everything the Red Sox wanted him to be, adding 2 wins in each season but his defense regressed in 2011 and lessened his value. It will be interesting to see if the Red Sox buyout his option year at a cost of $1.5 million or keep him on for $6 million this off-season. As for Barajas, he was moved from the Mets to the Dodgers in August of 2010 and put up an OPS+ of 97 and a WAR of 1.2, great value for his contract..

Looking at these stats, both players were above average after leaving the Blue Jays, with Scutaro adding 2.5 and 1.4 wins in the two seasons of his contract and Barajas a combined 1.2 wins above replacement level between the Mets and the Dodgers. The average cost per win has been estimated by some to be around $4.5 million meaning that both these players were bargains for their new teams. However, the Red Sox did give up the 80th pick in the draft along with the salary to sign Scutaro.
Was there ever a chance either of these players would have re-signed with Toronto? Tough to know, however they both would have been useful players for the Blue Jays, tomorrow let’s look at how they were replaced in the lineup.

The Vernon Wells Trade

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It’s not often that one transaction is said to cost a general manager his job but in the case of Angels GM Tony Reagins it is said that this is exactly the case. Reagins thought the Angels were one good outfielder away from making the playoffs and in the off-season, he came together with two other teams to acquire exactly that in Vernon Wells. The outfielder was once a 5th overall pick in 1997 and had manned centre field for the Toronto Blue Jays since 2002. In 2003, he finished 8th in MVP voting and won a silver slugger. The next season he won his first of 3 straight Gold Gloves, however he had not given the Jays above replacement level defense in 3 years according to the dWar stat. He was coming off an All-Star season of 30 home runs and an OPS of .847 but even though there was no clear replacement at his position the Jays were willing to deal him because of the 4 years left on his contract at $21 million or more per season (of which the Jays paid $5 million for the first season).

In the end, Reagins traded two players catcher Mike Napoli (flipped for Frank Francisco making this a 3 way trade) and outfielder Juan Rivera. The Jays essentially dumped his contract, receiving about Replacement Level performance from the combination of Rivera and Francisco (however they may keep Francisco or add a compensatory draft pick after this season).

In sports and in the bedroom, it is always important in a three-way to make sure that all parties end up satisfied with the outcome. In this case, it is pretty obvious that the Angels did not end up being satisfied. Looking at the short term, they shipped out two players making $11 million and received $5 million in cash from the Blue Jays, therefore Vernon Wells’ salary difference was of only $7 million for the 2011 season. Just like renting a movie starring Jennifer Aniston instead of seeing it in theatres, It was still an overpayment…Vernon Wells, spent the majority of his time in LF, a defensive position with less value than his usual home of CF, had an OBP of .248, a SLG of .412 (An OPS of .660 for those scoring at home) and a batter VORP 4.0 (tied for 306th in the league). He still had 25 home runs, a category in which he ranked 2nd for the Angels. Juan Rivera, dumped in favour of Wells, actually had a higher OPS during his time with the Jays (before being again dumped, this time to the Dodgers), .666, and had a VORP of 4.7. When looking at Wins Above Replacement, Rivera made the Jays 1.2 wins worse during the 2011 season while Wells only made the Angels -0.3 wins worse. Was it worth the $7 million to add the .9 wins to their lineup? Well, was the switch worth the 5 dollars you spent at Blockbuster….errr…the local video store?

But wait! The Rangers also gave up another player in this trade…Mike Napoli! He was seen by the Angels as a sub-par defensive catcher (negative dWar value in three straight years) however the Rangers still had him start 57 games there along with 45 games between first base and designated hitter. Napoli rewarded them by hitting 30 home runs (the type of power that Wells was expected to bring to the Angels lineup) and showing increased patience at the plate for an OBP of .414. His OPS was of 1.046 which would have placed him second in the American League if he had enough at bats to qualify and he added over 5 wins to the Rangers lineup. The defensively sound Jeff Mathis had the majority of at bats at catcher for Anaheim and had an OPS of .484…which makes Wells look like a stud in comparison. If you’re looking for him on the VORP leaderboard, scroll down…lower…lower…did you get to Adam Dunn yet? Yes? Ok just a bit higher…there he is resting at 1154 of 1173 with a VORP of negative 7.6…his Wins Above Replacement showed with a decent value of only costing the Angels 0.3 games The rookie Hank Conger who was seen as the reason Napoli was no longer needed was not much better with an OPS of .638 and VORP of 5.6 and a WAR of 0.3. Bobby Wilson also took at bats at catcher for the Angels, and was equally unimpressive with a WAR of 0.1.

Why did Tony Reagins “resign”? Well in this trade, he gave up almost 5 wins while adding $7 million in salary for the 2011 season. He also added $69 million in future salaries…however it is important to note that his team did finish 10 wins above .500 and 2nd in their division. The Rangers ended up the big winner with a player who added over 5 wins to their lineup above replacement level while the Jays essentially gave up Wells in exchange for freeing themselves of over $76 million in player commitment. Some of that saved money went into a long-term contract for Jose Bautista but the Jays will have to hope for a better performance in centre field from Colby Rasmus or a newcomer if they hope to contend and forget about their long-time centre fielder. In the end, this was seen as the trade of the year by one general manager, Alex Anthopoulous, and he wasn’t even the one who added the most wins in 2011 in this transaction.

So Hollywood ruined Moneyball...

I finally got around to seeing Moneyball last night and can't say that I loved or hated it. For anyone who hasn't seen it, stop reading now, but know that if you go and enjoy the movie as a Hollywood fulff piece, you should like it...if you're a hardcore fan of the book, fan of sabrmetrics or want to see lots of baseball scenes...forget it.

Why didn't I like it? Because the movie essentially starts in Mark Shapiro's office where Beane is negotiating for a player, Shapiro agrees only to have his fat special assistant disagree, and Shapiro agrees...this stuff happens in baseball, the GM can't know every player on the office. BUT then Billy Beane finds this fat assistant, figures out he's a disciple of Bill James and hires him away. This is where the movie lost me, for the benefit of short attention spanned movie watchers, Aaron Sorkin has molded together Paul Depodesta and JP Ricciardi into one character that is hired by Billy Beane during the off-season immediately before the "Moneyball season". Worse, "Beane" immediately buys into what Peter Brand is selling. Choosing to listen to him before his top scouts 3 weeks into his tenure into the front office and choosing the replacements for Giambi, Damon and Isringhausen on what seems like a whim.

I wasn't expecting a great history of sabrmetrics or anything but to make the most difficult decisions in baseball seem as easy to make as they do in this movie is like if "The Social Network" had Zuckerberg create the facebook we know today in 5 minutes.

Don't get me started on the fact that Beane all of a sudden begins speaking to players and making them buy into the whole OBP thing. They chose and trained these players to do exactly that, it's not like the players would all of a sudden listen to their general manager because he knows all.

So if you want to see an entertaining movie, go ahead go see Moneyball but don't expect anything like the book. The best chapter "the Trade Deadline" is portrayed in the movie and is a great scene that ssticks to what was written in the book. But there is a lot of silent brooding parts meant to get Brad Pitt an Oscar nomination including an awkward drive at the ending. However, the newly added ending scene is a great nod to real life. Ironic that I saw this movie minutes after my blackberry went off telling me that Theo Epstein may no longer the Red Sox gm.

The Rocket trade

Roger Clemens is traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Yankees for Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd, and David Wells.

He broke Jays fans’ hearts…and then did it again to all of his fans (Mitchell Report). After two fantastic Cy Young season with the Jays, the Rocket utilized a clause in his 4 year contract that allowed him to demand a trade. Although he later withdrew the demand, Gord Ash found a trading partner in the Yankees and dealt Roger Clemens to the division rival (seriously, he couldn’t have convinced Roger to accept a trade to a National League powerhouse? He had to deal him to the team the Jays were chasing for the division title?) In Clemens two remaining seasons on his contract, he pitched well (27 wins, 18 losses, ERA+ of 103 and 130 with over 175 innings pitched in both years) and won two games in the two World Series wins by the Yankees. Clemens stayed with the Yankees for three more seasons afterwards, appearing in two more World Series and winning the Cy Young award in 2001.

The prize piece in return for Roger Clemens was the portly left-hander David Wells, who made his return to Toronto after beginning his career with the Jays. In two years with the Blue Jays, “Boomer” had a better record than Clemens (37 wins, 18 losses), threw more innings (over 225 in both seasons) but his statistics were not as pretty (ERA+ of 102 and 123).

After two seasons Wells, like Clemons before him, requested a trade to a contender and was traded to the White Sox Kevin Beirne, Brian Simmons and Mike Sirotka. That deal was disastrous for the Blue Jays; the big piece of the trade was pitcher Mike Sirotka, who had suffered a torn labrum in the previous playoffs and would never pitch in a game for the Blue Jays, his career effectively over. Worse, was the fact that White Sox GM Ken Williams knew about this injury but that Gord Ash never asked for the proper information when trading for Sirotka. Beirne and Simmons had negligible impact on the Blue Jays…

There were two other parts received by the Blue Jays in exchange for Clemens; speedy second baseman Homer Bush and left-handed reliever Graeme Lloyd. Bush was not a fantastic hitter (OPS+ of 96 in 1999), however he brought a speed dimension to the Jays lineup in his first season (stealing 32 bases while mostly batting 9th). Injuries slowed him down in the 2000 season and he managed only an OPS+ of 33 and 9 stolen bases, although he rebounded in 2001 to achieve an OPS+ of 89. The inconsistent Bush was finally released in May of 2002 while again struggling with the bat (OPS+ of 48).
Lloyd spent only one season with the Jays and appeared in 74 games, throwing 72 innings with a 3.63 ERA and 136 ERA+ which did not come close to his statistics in 1998 (1.67 ERA and 264 ERA+).
If we look at Value Over Replcement Player, the statistic helps us break down the trade in it’s first two years this way:

Yankees: Clemens -> 1999: 27.8 2000: 46.2

Blue Jays:

• Wells -> 1999: 29.8 2000: 47.4
• Lloyd -> 1999: 14.3
• Bush -> 1999: 26.9 2000: -20.1

When looking at VORP, Wells outperformed Clemens in both of the first two seasons after the trade and there was added value from Lloyd and Bush in 1999. However, without Lloyd and with Bush’s regression in 2000, the added pieces to the trade were useless for the Blue Jays in that season, even an actual nuisance to the roster.

When looking at this trade for only the two years where Clemens was still under contract (and before David Wells demanded the trade), this trade seems pretty even. Wells was paid less than Clemens and was his equal if not better in those two seasons. Lloyd contributed positively to the Jays bullpen while Bush’s two seasons almost cancel each other out. Clemens’ next two seasons coupled with receiving essentially nothing when trading Wells makes this seem like a worse trade but when taken in a two year timeline, Ash got good return in exchange for The Rocket, a player he signed as a free agent and therefore did not have to give up assets to acquire.

Batista, Frascatore for Plesac trade

June 12, 1999: Tony Batista is traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks with John Frascatore to the Toronto Blue Jays for Dan Plesac.

I don’t know why this is one of my favorite Jays trades, others come to mind (the Carter and Alomar trade) that were more important in the history of this team. But at the time, I was growing into a more passionate and more intelligent baseball fan (notice I did not say I WAS or am an intelligent fan, just that I was becoming and still am, more intelligent). This transaction came at a time where I lived and died by the team’s win/loss record (I had no girlfriend at the time) and in retrospective, I wish I had access to more information at the time as I knew nothing of Batista or Frascatore. Batista arrived and made an immediate impact, batting 2^nd in the lineup in his first game and hitting a home run with that unorthodox swing along with batting in 4 during a 13-4 win by the Jays. Just for good measure, Frascatore came in for a perfect 8^th inning of mopup duty. That same day, the Jays announced that their usual starting shortstop, Alex Gonzalez would be out for the season. Frascatore ended the season with an ERA+ of 144 in 37 innings and a VORP of 9.9 while Batista hit 26 home runs, with an OPS+ of 122 and a Value Over Replacement Player of 36.1 in is 98 games with the Jays.

This trade was a clear win for the Jays in it’s first season as it provided them with the shortstop they needed to compete in the AL East as well as what became a reliable reliever by giving up a left-handed specialist reliever. Plesac pitched superbly in his role for the Diamondbacks; 21.7 innings, an ERA+ of 139, VORP of 5.4 and holding left-handed batters to an OPS of .505. However, with the Jays, he was an unneeded asset as they already had Graeme Lloyd, who established a similar ERA+ of 136.

The Jays of course failed to make the playoffs (something that broke my heart then, now it’s a yearly occasion…did I mention that I didn’t have a girlfriend at the time?) In 2000 both Batista and Frascatore regressed while Plesac improved statistically. Batista shifted over to third base and hit 41 home runs, but only got on base 30.7% of the time, establishing an OPS+ of 102 while Frascatore threw 73 innings while only establishing an ERA+ of 93 and a value slightly over that of a replacement player. Plesac somehow became more dominant against RHB than LHB and in 40 innings pitched, his ERA+ was of 152 and his VORP of 6. Following this season, Plesac re-signed with Toronto. However, 2001 was not the season for Batista (271 at bats, 13 home runs, OPS+ of 67 before finally being waived) or Frascatore (16.3 innings, 209 ERA+, waived in May and never heard from again). In retrospect, 2001 should be known as the year the ace made his return as Roy Halladay returned to the Majors.

This trade makes for a great story…so much promise in the beginning, and then in an instant it was gone. The 27 year old Batista found some of his form once arriving in Baltimore and was even named to the 2002 All-Star team. Plesac threw well in his second stint with Toronto before being traded to Philadelphia for Cliff Politte, who like Batista and Frascatore before him showed lots of promise in his first half-season with the Jays only to falter in his second. I don’t know what the morale of the story is, perhaps it is that as a sports fan we should never become too excited about a transaction because anything can and will happen, for better or for worse.

Stark weighs in, Eckstein signing

Short update before the holidays, if I have any spare time, I'm going to work on correcting the articles and maybe some new articles...whatever the mood strikes me to do.

• ESPN.com's Jayson Stark weighs in on the American League, asking J.P. Ricciardi and two other general managers (including one of my personal favs, Mark Shapiro) about what they do to attempt to vault the powers in the AL. Ricciardi says pitching depth could be the answer...


• I've ignored to mention the fact that David Eckstein has been signed. The scrappy SS should bring a good leadoff bat to the lineup and spare Jays fans from seeing McDonald penciled in every day. Johnny Mac is probably already penciled in for any Halladay start to field those ground balls although Eckstein is not bad defensively as proven by this article. He had an OPS+ of 93 last season, a VORP of 20.7 and stole ten bases while only being caught once. He also brings two World Series rings to the locker room which is never bad thing. Plus an inexpensive one year deal reduces the risk, he'll be playing to get a bigger contract in the next free agent year.

Ricciardi Project Follow-Up

The Ricciardi Project was meant to be an objective statistical overview of the trades made by Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi in his first five seasons in that position.
Of the 27 trades analyzed in the document, 11 players from 7 of the trades them spent time in the Majors with the Jays or the team they were traded to by Ricciardi in 2007.

Chad Gaudin : Gaudin became a dependable, if not ordinary, starter for Beane and co. in the last season, logging almost 200 innings and going 11-13 with an ERA+ of 95 and a Value Over Replacement Player of 24.3 along with 10 win shares. Gaudin was traded for Dustin Majewski who was a fringe prospect for the Jays and was lost in the AAA portion of the 2007 Rule Five draft to Texas. Gaudin may turn out be a good number 3 starter in the Majors but he would not have had room on the 2007 Jays roster (although he would have been a better option than Towers before the emergence of McGowan and Marcum). Speaking of Towers…here’s an interesting read that over-values him, Towers is not at the same level as Silva…

The Bush/Overbay trade: Obviously when Ricciardi acquired Overbay he wasn’t thinking “I need a first baseman who will hit 10 home runs and get on base only 31.5% of the time”. Big things were expected of Overbay during the 2007 season and as he fought through injuries he could not live up to these expectations, only contributing 6 Win Shares to the team. The regression of Overbay along with Vernon Wells kept the Jays from contending and both will be looked upon to rebound this year. Luckily for J.P.’s public image both Gabe Gross and David Bush regressed during the 2007 season; Gross was able to again throw over 175 innings but was lucky to go 12-10 with an ERA of 5.12 and ERA+ of 88. Gross was again used off the bench by the Brewer but could not manage to get on base as often as in 2006, falling from an OBP of .382 to .329. When looking at VORP, the advantage goes to the Brewers for the second consecutive year as Overbay was -3.6, Gross was 2.9 and Bush was 13 Over Replacement Player and the two contributed 10 total Win Shares. 2008 will be an important season for Overbay to turn it around…

O-Dog and Glaus: The other blockbuster completed by the Jays management staff during December 2005 was to acquire power hitting third baseman Troy Glaus with Sergio Santos from the D-Back for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista. This trade has not quite brought upon the results Ricciardi was hoping for…
Hudson outperformed Glaus for the second year in a row while playing, arguably, better defense at a more difficult defensive position. He beat out Glaus in VORP 32.8 to 20.5, Win Shares, 20 to 14 and even RBIs 63 to 62 while earning $7 million less. The O-Dog is a free agent at the end of the year and should be expected to have a good contract year while Glaus was just named in the Mitchell Report…It’s not looking good for Troy to outplay Hudson this season.

Hillenbrand and Chulk for Accardo: Ricciardi hasn’t made many deadline deals since his arrival at the Jays (Stewart, Adams…?) but this one is a trade that needed to be made near the deadline because of clubhouse issues. The trade ended up working out really well for the Jays. When examining the trade with VORP, Hillenbrand actually contributed negatively to the Giants with a -6.3 VORP, however Chulk outpitched Accardo that season according to the stat: 2.1 to 0.6. Hillenbrand left San Francisco as a free agent and in 2007, Accardo became the de facto closer for a team missing B.J. Ryan, notching 30 saves and a VORP of 26.2 and contributing 12 win shares while Chulk was productive for the Giants with a VORP of 12.8 and 5 win shares.

Brian Wolfe: The pitcher received for Corey Koskie, who did not play in 2007, played a part in the Blue Jays bullpen during that season, appearing in HERE games and establishing a VORP of 13.5 while earning minimum salary and contributing 5 win shares. A good acquisition by Jays management for what was in essence a salary dump.

Eric Hinske: Apparently, the Player to be named later had a higher value as Hinske managed to negate the first year gains of 1.4 VORP with a 2007 VORP of -1.5 in limited at bats.

Trades! The week's big trades (Haren, Valverde, Tejada)...

I don't think it's a surprise to anyone that this is one my favorite times of the year because of all the moves being made by different teams. An early Christmas for some teams this week as trades are being made and star players are being gift wrapped for their new General Managers. Let's run it down:

Billy Beane's hard on for prospects continued as he took the decision to trade arguably his top starter Dan Haren along with Connor Robertson for a package of prospects to the Diamondbacks. The fact of the matter is, Beane is an intelligent GM and he knew it would be quite a struggle for his team to make the playoffs this season and he has also previously learnt the value of trading top-flight starters with the Mulder/Hudson trades. He went after left handed pitchers in this deal, acquiring Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith along with infielder Chris Carter and outfielders Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez. The "prospect acquisition" trade is always a difficult one to breakdown when it happens, and would be better judged five years from now. But, none of the prospects acquired are true impact players except for Cunningham.

With the acquisition of Haren, The D-Backs now have an incredible 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. This team made the playoffs last season and were able to acquire an all-star starter, signed cheaply without giving up one Major League piece! They were smart to utilize a deep farm system to acquire something they needed, a 27 year old, 15 game winner with the potential to win 20 on this team. ZiPS actually sees Haren regressing a little in IPs and ERA+ and therefore affecting his record (14-11).

The D-Backs were not done however, as they acquired major league depth from the Astros (reliever Chad Qualls, pitcher Juan Gutierrez and utility player Chris Burke) for their closer, and the Major League saves leader for the 2007 season, Jose Valverde.

This trade was "very much connected" to the first one to re-acquire some depth after trading away a lot of young players in the first deal. First off, they lose their closer but acquire one late inning reliever, Qualls (9 win shares, ERA+ of 144), who may take his role and is a candidate along with Brandon Lyon (11 win shares, ERA+ of 176) and Tony Pena (10 win shares, ERA+ of 144). Sidebar...is it not strange that Pena and Tony Pena both come from the Dominican Republic, both made their debuts in 2006 and both had great breakout 2007 seasons? Aside from Pena Sr., they are the only "Tony Pena"s listed on BR...when is the last time two players with identical names have had this type of break through in the same year? Why isn't more time devoted to this?

Burke will come off the bench and can play the outfield or the middle infield while the 23 year-old Gutierrez is a young arm who may start or be a reliever for a deep D-Backs pitching staff. The trade is risky, trading a proven closer on a team contending for the playoffs isn't always the easiest proposition but should pay good dividends and was needed in the grand scheme of things, if the D-Backs need a top end reliever at mid-season, they still have pieces to get it done.

The Ed Wade era is in full effect in Houston, he was busy this week picking up closer Jose Valverde and shortstop Miguel Tejada. The team needed fixing after a 73-89 season and Wade has undertaken some changes. Valverde should immediately step into the closer role liberated by the trade of Brad Lidge and should be an upgrade over a closer who the fanbase lost a bit of confidence in the past seasons and only ended up with 19 saves last year. Valverde had an ERA+ of 177 in 64.3 innings last year with 47 saves and he provided 12 win shares as compared to Lidge's 9.


Tejada is declining, however his bat will be a major upgrade over the Everett (56 OPS+ in 220 ABs) and Loretta (89 OPS+ in 460 total ABs) tandem that played SS last season...that's right Mark Loretta played shortstop last year for a major league team...something he hadn't done on a full time basis since 2000. Tejada had only 18 home runs last season bud was an above average batter (109 OPS+), whether he can regain his swing from a few years ago is a big questions, certainly since his name came out in the Mitchell Report. I'm not saying anything, I'm just saying...his name is on the list...and Baltimore traded him the day before it came out...and he regressed last year with stricter drug polices...

The prospects given up by Houston are pretty good too: The number two and three prospects in their system according to Baseball America (starters Troy Patton and Matt Albers) along with 4th oufielder Luke Scott (who has some pop), reliever Dennis Sarfate (who some project as a future closer, this article talks about his 101 mph fastball) & third baseman and masher Mike Costanzo. The Astros definitely have a more dynamic offense with his addition however they gave up a lot of depth in two trades while not solving their issues with starting pitching. Along with the questions stemming from the Mitchell Report, there are questions whether Tejada can still play SS and if not, how well he would make the transition to third base.

A trade revisited...

A year ago today, the Rockies traded starting pitcher Jason Jennings along with Miguel Ascensio for outfielder Willy Taveras and two prospect pitchers Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz. At the time, your truly called Jason Jennings "quite possibly one of the best starters on the trade market", let's see what transpired in the first year after the trade.

The Rockies ended up going on an unbelievable run at the end of the 2007 season to make the playoffs while the Astros were awful and missed the playoffs. Jennings was as worthless as K-Fed was to Britney; taking $5.5 million in salary and only won 2 of his 18 starts. He averaged less than 6 innings per start and had an ERA of 6.45. His VORP for the season was -8.2 while contributing -1 Win Share to the Astors (Seriously, is it 1 loss share when a player is in the minuses?) As useless as Jennings became because of his arm problems, to the point where the Astros declined to offer him arbitration this off-season, Ascensio failed to appear in one game for Houston. The one saving grace for the Astros is that Hunter Pence played beautifully in centre field with an OPS+ of 130 and finished 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting while playing in the spot liberated by the trade of Tavares.

Willy Taveras showed up in Colorado and immediately became their leadoff hitter, although injuries and lack of performance led him to the bench during their September run. He provided the team with great defense and a high average bat at the top of the lineup at a inexpensive price but could only muster an OPS+ of 89, although he had identical stolen base stats (33 of 42 for 5 stolen base runs) as his previous season while accumulating 12 win shares. Tavares isn’t exactly the most patient hitter (he drew 21 walks in 372 at bats) but neither was their leadoff hitter at the start of the 2006 season, Cory Sullivan (32 walks in 386 at bats).

The two pitchers acquired both played for the Rockies; Hirsh went 5-7 with an ERA+ of 100 in 112.3 innings while Buchholz went 6-5 in a combination of starts and relief appearances (Relief? Hmmm… “maybe best suited for a relief role”) with an ERA+ of 113 in 93.66 innings. However, neither appeared in the playoffs, Hirsh actually didn’t pitch past August. They combined for 9 Win Shares during the season.

All in all, this trade was quite a coup by Dan O’Dowd, acquiring three good pieces for a young team for a pitcher who ended up almost worthless because of arm problems. The Astors are currently looking for a 5th starter and traded two youngsters who could battle for the job. Anytime you can trade a player who doesn’t finish his first season with his new team for three 25 year olds, one at a premium defensive position and two good arms is a good trade. When your team goes to the World Series after finishing ten games under .500 the year before, every move looks great.

Mid-Season!

Well I debated this weekend about whether I should make the drive down to Toronto for the games or go to a cottage...the races made me decide to skip Toronto and instead I spent two days in the rain without access to watching what I knew would be a great series. This Jays team made a statement throughout the weekend of what they have in them and the run to the playoffs that is not yet impossible. The tone was set in the ninth inning of Game 1 with Reed Johnson's game saving balls-out catch, continued with Johnnie Mac's web gems through the weekend and finished with the gutsy strike out in the 9th inning yesterday.

Watch for some mid-season reviews in the next couple days...we're going to look at things with a Jays eye as well as some of the moves made in the off-season.

NHL Free Agency

As previously stated, the past four days have been madness in Canada as everyone is following the big moves being made during the first few days of NHL free agency. The money being spent is stupid...and the terms being given are franchise killers. That being said, I've written a short article looking at the teams that have gone and shopped the much in the early going. It can be accessed here.

Jays beat themselves

Well, not a good effort by the Blue Jays last night, as they failed their young starter with defensive mishaps and unearned runs. The fun started with the bench not warning Zaun that Stewart was swiping second, and allowing a steal that should have just not been counted as a steal (of course I don't mind since I have him on my fantasy team). Zaun then threw the ball into CF to allow Stewart to go to third and eventually score. Then in the second inning, Glaus makes an error that leads to another Oakland run.

Glaus had a terrible night, he went 1-4, left 3 runners on base (as did Thomas, which is fantastic on a night where you get 4 hits and one walk) and made miscues that cost the team, such as trying to tag up on a pop out from first to second base. Twice he had Rios in scoring position with less than two outs and was unable to score him or move him over.

Litsch was impressive as he got himself out of trouble early on and seemed to settle down. He allowed 7 hits and walked 3 batters but he managed to not allow an earned run. Not much to be said about this game...oi...

The weekend that was

Canada Day and NHL Free Agent talk took over the weekend in the Ottawa area. Leaf fans are surprised their hapless GM was able to acquire a winger to help Sundin after picking up a goalie, Habs fans are pissed that their GM threw money around but none of it would stick to any free agents until Monday and Sens fans are anxiously awaiting something, anything.

In the end, two of those three teams didn't make the playoffs and didn't do much to improve their chances while the Senators will attempt to take a maturing group back to the Stanley Cup Finals without much fiddling. I'll actually write a report on NHL Free Agency later as I was doing some side work this weekend on the subject.

But, back to why we're here, what happened to the hot Jays? This team hit .500, was slowly going to get three players off of DL and things were looking optimistic...until this weekend. A loss on Thursday against the Twins that split the series was quickly followed by a three game sweep at the hands of Seattle. Vernon Wells helped the team recover last night and allow Towers to win his second straight start. But the bad news came as Burnett was placed back on the DL for what looks like three to four weeks with more arm problems. Halladay just doesn't look like Doc and wouldn't even get my vote for the All-Star game's last AL player at this point. The team needs the three day All-Star break to heal some bumps and bruises, and Roy would be well served not throwing for a couple days.

To get to the All Star game, there are two more games against the Athletics followed by 3 against the Cleveland Indians. The Jays will send Litsch agains Blanton tonight, followed by McGowan vs Kennedy. Halladay is slated to start Friday against the AL Central leading Indians (and Cliff Lee) and would therefore be ready for the series opener vs Boston on next Thursday. The Jays have a couple more weeks to prove they're contenders or some of these veterans could be traded...remember after the 4 game series against the Sox, there are only 6 games left between the current 1st and 2nd places in the AL East.

How good has Marcum been for this team? He now leads the team in VORP and has 7 win shares, good enough to be tied for 5th on the Jays with Doc, tied for first amongst pitchers. He faces Fausto Carmona on Saturday according to the probables at the Rogers Centre.

Most dysfunctional clubhouse: The Padres!

Reports are coming out that San Diego has acquired Milton Bradley. Bradley is extremely talented but known to be emotional and sometimes troublesome and was designated for assignment by the Athletics for unknown reasons although it was said to create room for players such as Travis Buck. Milton "The game" has had 5 consecutive season of an OPS+ over 100, he's not quite a home run threat and not quite a good base stealer but he does a lot of things well. It seems as though the Royals had completed a deal for Bradley but then reneged on the deal.

This comes not long after their acquisition of Michael Barrett, the ex-Cubs catcher who had been in a couple altercations with his own starting pitchers and one with friend AJ Pierzynski last season. Should be interesting to see how Bradley and Barrett co-exist, but it's for sure that they're adding a lot of offense to a team currently tied for first in their division even though they are in the bottom tier of the National League for runs.

June 28th Live Blog During The Game

End of first inning: Is anything more maddening than AJ Burnett?
Single
-Hit By Pitch
-Ks one of the best young hitters in the game on three pitches
-rbi single
-Ks last year's MVP on four pitches
-Enduces Ground Out.
He doesn't even look dominant for full games anymore, just against a couple batters an inning. Glad he got out of that jam without giving back more than one run though.

And congratulations Frank Thomas, his 500th home run is a 3 run shot that gives us a big first inning lead. Prediction: This guy will be a monster now that is off his mind.

Gotta love Carlos Silva...one inning, one pitching coach visit.

End of Second Inning:
Nothing to talk about on the Jays end... except why is Jason Phillips starting? After everyone being mad that Clayton made an error in his return to the lineup yesterday, McDonald makes only his third error of the year to make Royce feel better, what a teammate. AJ mows two of them down and has now thrown 75% of pitches for strikes.

End of Third Inning:
Good prediction on the Big Hurt, RBI Double in the third inning. Before the season, had I said that you had Matt Stairs and Howie Clark as the number two and four hitters in the lineup, would you ever think this team would be up 5-1 over the Twins after three innings? Stairs looks like he needs a break, hopefully one of the 1b/LF comes back and puts him back in a more part time situation.

How? HOW does Burnett do it? How do you give up a home run to Jason Bartlett when you're looking so filthy and dominating against better batters? Oh look...makes Mauer ground out, striked out Cuddyer, strikes out Morneau. Maddening...

End of Fourth Inning:
1-2-3...gosh I want to get rid of Phillips....

Another home run given up by AJ, at least it's against a legitimate power threat this time...and Lind gets all the action with three pop outs. What's wrong with Lind right now? Is he simply over-matched, is there now a confidence issue there too? Hopefully he finds himself in AAA when Johnson comes back...

End of Fifth Inning:
It seems like Silva has quite calmed down...another 1-2-3 inning...think Twins fans get as frustrated with him as Jays fans sometimes get with Burnett.

Single-Single...and AJ is done for the day. Must have been a 75-80 pitch count for the comeback. Frasor coming in to try to get him out of this....and this may not be the best game to blog. Frasor blows it open by allowing a Hunter home run and the Twins now lead 7-5. Welcome back AJ...

End of Sixth Inning:
Stairs tries to prove me wrong with a single...followed by a Big Hurt strike out and Aaron Hill double play. Hill now has 15 double plays on the year, matching last season's total...and he's not a slow guy. Might want to start taking bigger swings with guys on base...

And Jordan de Jong makes what could be his last appearence with League looking ready in AAA. Helped by a double play, he only allows one run...joyous day. De Jong came up with so much promise when we struck out the side but he just doesn't seem ready either.

End of Seventh Inning:
Blue Jays fail to manufacture a run, the bottom of the order is 0 for 8 today, at least Lind has drawn a walk...with Cleveland winning and Detroit leading, this may be a tough day for the Jays. Someone asked of me, do you think the Jays should sell now? My answer is heck no, not when the team is looking better, wait until mid July when you'll have added a Johnson, Overbay and Chacin trio then see where things stand. With the injured players coming back it will be like if this team added three players by July trades and that should give them a boost. The Johnson/Lind swap alone should be worth a couple wins to this team.

Jordan De Jong gets the double play to end the inning after a K then BB to the first two batters. At least someone could stop Torri today.

End of Eight Inning:
I know the Jays are down by 3 and not only one but why let Clark have another AB instead of Troy Glaus? Oh gee...1-2-3 inning...if they lose, they lost this one ugly...almost as ugly as these jerseys.

De Jong ends up with three inning and one unearned run with one hit and 2 walks. We'll see if he sticks with team with league coming off the DL.

End of Game:
Well the Jays finally showed some more first in the ninth...Gibby and the Big Hurt got ejected. 2 more errors today for the defense, and I'm hoping...hoping that Stairs doesn't have to play the field for too many games anymore, this game was painful but at least it wasn't long...

And they're a game over .500

Unfortunately, I could not catch the game last night but I did get a chance to watch it in about half an hour this morning. The team is a game above five hundred and actually has a 4 game winning streak! Marcum goes tonight against Scott Baker, who is fighting for his job in the rotation.

• Wells really seems to be getting comfortable in the lead off spot, he'll get less RBI opps but he's bringing it. A home run, a double and a single last night plus 3 RBIs, maybe he's getting out of that slump!
• Rios continues his claim as the offensive MVP with a 3-4 night, 7 TBs and a SF along with 2 runs and 2 RBIs. Stairs is challenging with less at bats but a big go ahead shot last night!
• Doc just isn't Doc right now but the team is playing well behind him, he gave them 7 good innings yesterday but gave up 5 earned runs with only 9 base runners even though he did not give up a home run.
• Jays cast-away John Thomson pitched a good game in his first start this season with the Royals. He gave up 2 earned runs on 6 hits and no walks to get the W. Interestingly, he did not strike out one batter.

From Goat to Hero?

• Frank Thomas had a fabulous weekend and it showed when looking at VORP, his Value went up 3.6 from Friday morning to Monday morning. One away from 500, let's see if he can get that and get on a roll, came close tonight against Minnesota
• Biggest VORP gain this weekend? Matt Stairs jumped 7.2 to go up to 15.7 value. Is anyone (non-arbitration) a better bargain in MLB than this guy? If so, I'd like to see him! This from a guy that was penciled in as a be a bench player!
  

Why the Jays aren't in first...the offensive part

Welcome back...after a busy NHL playoff season working sales for a Stanley Cup finalist followed by relaxing over at Lynx Stadium and actually catching Jays, and so many other teams', games on TV. Great game to catch on Sunday, I actually turned to my friend during the 2nd or 3rd inning and stated "McGowan looks filthy today"...good call...too bad my opponent in the pool had him.

So as of Thursday, these stats were compiled in trying to see why the Jays aren't better than they should have been. In taking a look at the offense (the problem spot as per expectations, it doesn't take long to figure out why). There are four positions where the Jays vastly under performing as per the expectations and even last season's performances.

• Catcher: With the injury to Zaun, the Jays have sent Jason Phillips ( -4.8 VORP) for the bulk of at bats. When Zaun has played, his numbers have been disappointing as he has only managed a VORP of -2.4. Last season both Molina and Zaun had VORPs over 15, hopefully Zaun regains his form as he comes back from the injury but the lack of a capable backup has hurt the team offensively.
  
• Left Field: The Jays lost half of their platoon in LF this off-season and the injury to Reed Johnson has not helped things. While they managed a combined VORP over 20 in LF last season, this season it is under 0! Adam Lind has had the majority of at bats and is a -4.1, in his limited ABs Johnson provided 1.1 VORP and Matt Stairs has over performed offensively in his at bats at LF and 1B. When is Reed back? The spark he brings to the top of the lineup is missed and Lind just needs more seasoning in AAA.
  
• Centre Field: Vernon Wells has been a bust since receiving his big contract, last season he had a VORP of 58.5, this season it's a VORP of 5...meaning by the end of the year he'll be approximately 45 VORP lower than he was last year...he needs to pick up his game, let's hope a move to the leadoff spot will help.
  
• Designated Hitter: Frank Thomas was expected to bring a spark to the lineup but has instead managed to get a VORP of only 5...not quite the improvement the team was looking for. Here's the good news, at this time last year the Big Hurt was not playing and his numbers were .239/.356/.522. His numbers after June 21st? .228/.375/.395, obviously he needs to start slugging (which he has with 2 home runs in his last 3 games) but he's still drawing a lot of walks and at least getting on base.
  

What's interesting will be to see how much their stats improved after a great weekend that pushed the team into second place in the division, can they get a 4 game winning streak tonight?

Big update SOON!

BVTN is coming back...big update coming up, you'll notice the stats are already updated!

The New Style of the Draft

Major League Baseball took a huge step in the growth of the popularity of the draft and in the exposure to top prospects. The first ever televised draft was a big deal for MLB and it should lead to positive growth for baseball as a whole. The lead-up to the draft had more mock drafts than I have ever seen available on the internet, and the draft itself provided a good look into the different prospects being drafted by each team along with organizational needs.

The impact this will have on baseball as a whole cannot yet be measured but there are several ways that it will positively impact the world of baseball:

First of all, the draft being broadcast brings attention to baseball in a fashion that the other sports do for their drafts. Fans tune in to see what players their teams draft, receive instant analysis on these players and this allows fans to formulate opinions about low level prospects they would otherwise not have. It also allows baseball fans to follow every team’s moves and see the different draft strategies.

This also boosts interest from fans to both high school and college baseball along with minor league baseball. The College World Series is immediately after the draft and being able to recognize which team a new drafted player is on allows fans to follow new prospects before they even reach the minor leagues. Once they are playing in the Minors, there is more name recognition with players and therefore more interest in Minor League games.

Having said this, there is some work to be done. Not allowing draft picks to be traded (or prospects to be traded until a year after they are signed) is a big step to keeping competitive balance and restricting teams from trading away their future. However, to make the draft more exciting, MLB should allow the trading of draft picks for other draft picks. Per example, if a team really wants a player, allow them to trade a later pick to move up in the first round or to bundle picks for a higher pick. This would bring more excitement to the draft, everyone loves a trade, and would also allow fans to truly recognize how wanted some player were.