Thursday, January 11, 2007

Projecting the 2007 Blue Jays

The Zips projection for the 2007 Blue Jays came out and they look good! Some thoughts:

  • Let's start with the offense...Frank Thomas is listed as projecting the best OPS(.892) but having only 314 ABs...
  • There are four starters who are above average at their positions:
    • Thomas
    • Overbay who is projected as having the best AVG and OBP on the team
    • Wells who vastly outperforms the Average CF (.845 OPS to .774)
    • Glaus, predicted to hit 34 home runs
  • And obviously 5 under-average: Zaun, Clayton, Hill, Rios and Johnson
  • Alex Rios I believe is under-valued in this...his HRs are projected to go down by 4 in 40some more at bats? His numbers across the board going down? I just don't see it...
  • Middle infield is a problem...there's a surprise...
  • Zaun isn't even a league avg catcher...
now on to the pitching staff:
  • For the under-rating of the hitting group...i think this pitching staff is over-rated
  • FOUR members of the bullpen are projected with better ERAs than the league avg reliever!!! Led by closer B.J. Ryan (2.o5 ERA, 79 IPs), Brandon League (3.38 ERA, 96 IPs), Jeremy Accardo (3.69 ERA, 78 IPs) and Jason Frasor (3.77 ERA, 74 IPs)
  • The big two are both slotted to miss starts (28 GS and 27 GS respectively) but are seen to have great ERAs, both under 3.7 and a combined 27 wins.
  • 6 starters are seen as better than league avg for this team! SIX! Including Towers (even while giving up 28 HRs in 176 IPs). Thomson ranks as the third best starter but with only 127 IPs.
All in all, this is a good good team according to the projections! Now let's have a fun, using a Lineup Analysis tool we find that this team would score 5.237 runs per game with the lineup as I project it. It's actully pretty darn good but could be .1 run per game better. The lineups with the most runs according to this would have Overbay leading off...somehow I think that will not happen. Batting Rios first would be absolutely horrible with these projections so let's hope the Jays don't think about it. Also, Wells as a third hitter is seen in most of the worse watch for that...Jays fans should be optimistic with these projections even without the signing of a true third starter...but they are just computer projections! NO ONE IS ALLOWED TO GET CARRIED AWAY! Parade usually goes down Yonge St right?

Finally in other news:


Anonymous said...

I checked Zips for the Yanks. They have NO one with a slg over .500! And RJ as their BEST, by far pitcher. Apparently, Red Sox Zips not done yet by Dan.

Mylegacy @ Dabox

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